Soybean Complex Market Recap for 08-18-10
September Soybeans finished 10 lower at 1035 1/4, 13 3/4 off the high and 9 up from the low. November Soybeans closed 11 1/4 lower at 1030 3/4. This was 7 1/4 up from the low and 16 off the high.
December Soymeal closed up 0.2 at 300.0. This was 3.5 up from the low and 4.5 off the high.
December Soybean Oil ended 0.76 lower at 41.45, 1.1 off the high and 0.22 up from the low.
November soybeans saw broad swings today with most of the day spent on the downside. This culminated with a late sell off that stopped short of the early session lows. Soy oil also sold off into the close while managing to hold above the early session lows. Traders said that a cooler weather forecast over the next week to ten days in the western soybean belt helped to pressure the market along with some selling in crude oil. Traders also noted that an improved weather outlook in Russia has helped to take the buying urgency out of the wheat market with this also serving to curb buyers’ enthusiasm in soybeans. The Midwest crop tour is showing an improved yield outlook in Indiana and a somewhat diminished outlook in Ohio with scouts also confirming the presence of Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) in Iowa. Illinois yields are showing signs of stress from the recent heat wave.
Corn Market Recap for 08-18-10
September Corn ended up 3 3/4 at 418 1/2, 1 1/4 off the high and 9 1/2 up from the low. December Corn settled 3 1/4 higher at 433 1/4. This was 9 3/4 up from the low and 1 off the high.
December corn sold off to start the day session in conjunction with lower crude oil and ideas that cooler weather may continue over the next week to ten days in the western Corn Belt. Nevertheless, a lack of sell orders and support from wheat helped to lift the corn market through late morning with the market ending the day just below its late morning high. The soybean/corn spreads saw moderate activity today, bringing some support to corn. In addition, the USDA announced a sale of 240,000 tonnes of US corn to Egypt this morning. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly ethanol production report today. Ethanol production for the week ending August 13th averaged 860 thousand barrels per day, down 6 thousand barrels per day (-0.69%) from last week and up 133 thousand barrels per day (18.3%) versus last year. Total Ethanol production for the week was 6.02 million barrels, down 42 thousand barrels from last week. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at near 90.3 million bushels. Cumulative corn used for ethanol production in 2009/10 stands at 4.26 billion bushels. The USDA currently forecasts corn/ethanol usage for 2009/11 at 4.5 billion bushels.
September Ricefinished 0.155 lower at 10.75, 0.155 off the high and 0.06 up from the low.
8-18-10 – Wheat Market Recap Report
September Wheat finished up 5 at 656, 9 off the high and 11 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 5 at 688 3/4. This was 11 1/4 up from the low and 9 1/4 off the high.
December wheat gained on the day after pushing lower late overnight and into the start of the day session. The market firmed to a substantial gain into mid morning before easing somewhat from its highs into early afternoon. The Canadian Wheat Board said today this year’s all-wheat production would come in near 21 million tonnes, up 100,000 tonnes from its July estimate. The CWB also expressed concern that the official acreage and production numbers due out from Statistics Canada on Friday would miss the full extent of acreage lost during the spring-summer planting season. The rally in wheat today also followed an announcement by Ukraine that it is considering limiting wheat exports to 1.5 million tonnes from September through October, and this was considered supportive by the trade. Reports of crop concerns in Western Australia are also considered supportive as the world’s wheat importers turn to Australia, Canada and Argentina for wheat later in 2010/11 following the droughts in Ukraine and Russia. Sources in Indonesia indicate that flour mills there have adequate supplies of wheat booked until October, but one analyst noted that this is somewhat thin coverage given the recent decision by Turkish suppliers to curtail shipments of flour to Indonesian due to reduced access to wheat from Russia. This comes as flour mills in Indonesia are expecting to increase imports of wheat in 2010/11 due to growing demand.
December Oats ended 1 1/4 higher at 289 3/4. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 2 3/4 off the high.
After reading today’s recap,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
Andy Waldock circulates this blog. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, broker, asset manager, trader, and analystfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. As a result, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his family in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a dialogue among those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk. If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
The daily commentaries provide a review of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a summary of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule. Market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, silver and gold are provided by CME Group. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.